Due to the fall in the value of the dollar and the maintenance of interest rates at high levels, savers face a central dilemma: take advantage of the current price of the currency to dollarize or maintain their investments in pesos in search of attractive returns. Exchange stability and the profitability of placements in local currency reopened the discussion about what is the best financial strategy.
%E2%80%9CEl%20type%20of%20change%20nominal%20dej%C3%B3%20of%20occupy%20the%20center%20of%20debate%E2%80%9D,%20sure%C3%B3%20GMACapital.%20Sucede%20that%20since%20the%20elections%20of%20October,%20the%20d%C3%B3lar%20official%20registr%C3%B3a%20ca%C3%ADda%20del%203%%20and%20perfor%C3%B3%20the%20threshold%20of%20%20$1,400.%20In%20parallel,%20the%20counted%20with liquidation%C3%B3n%20(CCL),%20a%20despite%20of%20its%20higher%20volatility%20usual,%20was%20held%20near%20of%20values%20observed%20four%20months%20atr%C3%A1s,%20located%C3%A1ndorse%20around%20of%20$1,495.
%E2%80%9CThe%20result%20is%20a%20scenario%20that%20returns%20to%20favor%20strategies%20of%20rate%20in%20localcurrency.%20With%20d%C3%B3lar%20stable%20and%20yields%20in%20pesos%20elevados,%20the%20return%20delcarry%20tradein%20d%C3%B3lares%20today%20is%20located%20a%2016%%20above%20from%20the%20elections%20from%20media%20t%C3%A9term%E2%80%9D,highlight%C3%B3%20the%20consultant.
Thus, the progress in the accumulation of reserves, considering that BCRA purchases already total USD 2,090 million so far this year, together with sustained sterilization and exchange stability, “continues to reconfigure the short-term financial balance,” GMA indicated.
Even from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) they pointed out that “the decline in the CCL would be attributable to foreign investors entering into carry trade strategies.”
However, GMAIL warns that the strategy is also conditioned by the administration of the conditions in the peso market.
%E2%80%9CSi%20good%20el%20carry%20contin%C3%BAa%20offering%20returns%20positive%20in%20d%C3%B3lar%20with%20el%20tipode%20change%20stable,%20a%20inflation%C3%B3n%20that%20doesn’t%20end%20of%20converge%20reduces%20the%20real%20rate%20pesos%20(-3%%20TNA%20with%20terms%20fixed%20and%20-10%%20TNA%20with%20cautions)%20and%20requires%20sustain%20adifferential%20attractive%20for%20that%20the%20demand%20of%20local%20currency%20doesn’t%20weaken%E2%80%9D,consider%C3%B3%20the%20GMA.
In%20every%20way,%20as%20background,%20the%20consultant%201816%20assured%C3%B3:%20%E2%80%9CEl%20who%20apost%C3%B3%20alpeso%20gan%C3%B3:%20the%20return%20total%20in%20d%C3%B3lares%20(CCL)%20of%20be%20invested%20in%20pesos%20sinduration%20(calculated%20as%20a%20capitalization%C3%B3n%20daily%20on%20base%20at%20the%20reference%20rate%20of%20termos%20fixes%20wholesale)%20was%20of%2088%%20accumulated%20since%20that%20assumed%C3%B3Milei%20to%20end%20of%202023%E2%80%B3.
The report highlighted that the total return index reached a new high this week, driven by the positive market perception of the accumulation of reserves.In addition, the downward trend of the dollar against currencies such as the euro, the Japanese yen and the currencies of countries in the region also contributed to this performance.
The%20inc%C3%B3gnite%20main%20turns%20in%20lathe%20a%20the%20reasons%20that%20explain%20the%20low%20ofd%C3%B3lar%20in%20a%20escenario%20of%20inflation%C3%B3n%20high.%20The%20%C3%ADindex%20of%20prices%20of%20January reached%C3%B3%202.9%,%20the%20value%20m%C3%A1s%20ahighest%20since%20March%20last%20(3.7%).%20The%20inflation%C3%B3ninterannual%20se%20place%C3%B3%20in%2032,4%%20and%20accumulates%20three%20months%20consecutive%20in%20rising,%20adding eight%20months%20since%20May%20of%202025%20without%20showing%20se%C3%B1ales%20of%20deceleration%C3%B3n.
One of the determining elements behind exchange rate stability lies in the significant private supply.After the November legislative elections, the market observed several placements of Negotiable Obligations and provincial bonds, which allowed the entry of approximately USD 8,000 million.
On the other hand, the commercial sector contributed additional foreign currency.In January, a historical maximum was reached in the Affidavits of Foreign Sales (DJVE), with more than 10 million tons registered, driven mainly by exports of wheat and barley.
Added to this, according to Wise Capital, is a favorable international context with firmer regional currencies and a weakened global dollar.
The dollar price is projected to maintain its weak trend at least until mid-year.The second quarter would bring an especially high supply of foreign currency due to the commercial surplus typical of the season due to the thick harvest.
The%20%20market%20of%20%20%20reflects%20a%20recovery%C3%B3n%20of%20prices%20close%20to%2010%%20in%20what%20va%20of%202026,%20reaching%20the%20USD%20417%20per%20ton%20in%20Chicago,%20what%20supports%20the%20perspective%20of%20an%20extraordinary%20income%20of%20currency%20in%20the%20short%20term.
In%20this%20sense,%20Ecolatina%20highlights%C3%B3%20that%20the%20contracts%20a%20future%20of%20d%C3%B3lacompa%C3%B1aron%20to%20movement%20of%20spot%20and%20went down.%20In%20detail,%20the%20contracts%20convince%20between%20februaryro%20to%20April%20cut%202.5%%20and%20those%20with%20maturity from%20May%202026%20declined%202.6%.%20Respect%20a%20the%20devaluations%20impl%C3%ADcitations,%20themarket%20close%C3%B3%20with%20a%20devaluation%C3%B3n%20of%201.3%,%20 3.9%%20and%20 6.2%%20for%20February,%20March%20andApril,%20respectively.
