A%20hours%20of%20that%20the%20Indec%20d%C3%A9%20a%20know%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n%20of%20January,%20after%20la%20pol%C3%A9micagenerated%20a%20start%20of%20la%20suspensi%C3%B3n%20del%20new%20%C3%ADindex,%20the%20economist%20RicardoDelgado,%20director%20of%20the%20consultant%20Analytics,%20anticip%C3%B3%20that%20yes%20well%20its projections%20the%20locationaban%20in%20round%20a%202.5%,%20could%C3%ADa%20be%20something%20superior%20in%20function%C3%B3ndel%20data%20that%20was%20known%C3%B3%20yesterday%20of%20inflation%C3%B3n%20port%C3%B1a.%20On the other hand,%20consider%C3%B3little%20likely%20that%20during%20this%20a%C3%B1or%20will%20register%20some%C3%BAn%20month%20with%20a%20%C3%ADindex%20that begins%20with%200%.
This was made clear during an interview with Infobae alAmanecer, in which he explained that the disinflation process in Argentina usually takes several years, even in scenarios of exchange rate stability.In addition, he warned that the Government faces important challenges to reduce price inertia.
The%20estimation%C3%B3n%20of%20Analytics%20for%20the%20first%20month%20of%20a%C3%B1or%20produced%C3%B3%20a%20value%20of%202.5%.Delgado%20accurates%C3%B3%20that%20this%20n%C3%BAmero%20sample%20a%20slight%20low%20compared%20to%202.8%%20December,%20although%20warned%C3%B3%20about%20the%20possibility%20of%20that%20the%20data%20endat%20result%20m%C3%A1jump%20due%20to%20strong%20increase%20of%20fruits%20and%20vegetables%20in%20the%20City%20of%20BuenosAires.%20%E2%80%9CWe%20have%C3%ADWe%20%20increase%20of%2010%%20in%20that%20area,%20by%20what%20than%20the%20n%C3%BAmerofinal%20could%C3%ADa%20be%20a%20little%20greater%E2%80%9D,%20stated%C3%B3.
The%20economist%20se%20referred%C3%B3%20to%20impact%20of%20the%20new%20methodlog%C3%ADa%20of%20Indec%20tocalculate%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n,%20which%20started%C3%B3%20to%20rule%20in%20January.%20Sec%C3%BAn%20Delgado,%20thecorrection%C3%B3n%20applied%20by%20Analytics%20to%20their%20own%20c%C3%A1calculations,%20in%20l%C3%ADnea%20with%20the update%C3%B3n%20of%20the%20basket%20of%20consumption,%20throw%C3%B3%20a%20result%20barely%20a%20d%C3%A9top%C3%A1s%20high:%20%E2%80%9CNos%20give%202.6%%20with%20the%20medici%C3%B3n%20new%E2%80%9D.%20In addition%C3%A1s,%20al%20compare%20the%20accumulated%C3%B3inflation%20from%20to%C3%B1o%20past%20under%20the%20new%20scheme,%20the%20figure%20ascendi%C3%B3%20to%2033.5%,frent%20to%2031,5%%20that%20register%C3%B3%20the%20organism%20with%20the%20methodlog%C3%ADa%20previous.
During the conversation, Delgado maintained that a marginal decrease compared to December could favor the official reading, especially in a context of controversies due to the departure of Marco Lavagna from the direction of the institute and the change in methodology for measuring the index.“One tenth less would be an important symbolic triumph for the Government,” he indicated.
The%20director%20of%20Analytica%20explained%C3%B3%20that%20the%20processes%20of%20deflation%C3%B3n%20in%20economy%C3%ADaswith%20high%20volatility,%20like%20la%20argentina,%20requirein%20time%20and%20do not%20usually%20resolve%20immediately.%20%E2%80%9CVa%20a%20ser%20dif%C3%ADcil%20que%20this%20a%C3%B1o%20el%20n%C3%BAmero%20start%20en%200%%E2%80%9D, sentencing%B3%20that,%20out%20of%20exceptional episodes,%20the%20reduction%C3%B3n%20sustained%20of%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n%20implies%20several%20a%C3%B1os%20ofpol%C3%ADtics%20consistent.
In%20the%20interview,%20the%20economist%20also%C3%A9n%20analyzed%C3%B3%20the%20relationship%C3%B3n%20between%20the%20din%C3%A1mica%20of%20prices%20and%20the%20type%20of%20change.%20Front%20a%20the%20consultation%20about%20the%20apparentdisconnection%C3%B3n%20between%20the%20d%C3%B3lar%20and%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n,%20Delgado%20highlight%C3%B3%20that%20the%20resistance%20of%20prices%20a%20fall%20by%20below%20of%202%%20persists,%20even%20chen%20the%20exchange market%20shows%20stability%20e%20even%20setbacks%20in%20the%20quotation%C3%B3n.%20%E2%80%9CThe%20deflation%20processes%C3%B3n%20lead%20to%C3%B1os%E2%80%9D,%20affirm%C3%B3,%20and%20a%C3%B1adi%C3%B3%20that%20the%20Argentine%20casediffers%20from%20experiences%20such as%20the%20convertibility,%20that%20manage%C3%B3%20contain%20inflation%C3%B3n%20few%20months%20under%20a%20r%C3%A9special%20gimen.
Regarding official strategies, Delgado recommended avoiding exchange rate delay policies and recalled that in the past, decisions of this type generated temporary relief, followed by new accelerations in prices.Eleconomista reviewed last year’s episode, when the Government chose to stop the exchange rate at low levels during negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which resulted in a temporary drop in inflation in the months of May and June, before a new subsequent rebound.
The impact of the new methodology for measuring inflation marked part of the public debate in recent weeks.Delgado pointed out that the decision to modify the consumer basket on the fly, together with the departure of Lavagnadel Indec, generated controversies and tensions in the economic sphere.According to the director of Analytica, if the January data confirms a slight decrease compared to December, the Government could use it as a signal of control over the inflationary process, beyond the methodological questions.
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