The debut of phase four of the economic program was good and, so far this year, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) purchased more than USD 1,600 million, which led to gross international reserves reaching USD 45,232 million, generating relief in the market.But, despite this, net reserves—in recent months—have moved away from the goal agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is under negotiation during the second review.
The accumulation of dollars in the first tranche of 2026 shows an insufficient pace compared to the goals agreed with the Fund, according to official data and private estimates consulted by Infobae.Furthermore, for the last payment to the international organization, the BCRA used its own reserves and reduced the net accumulation of dollars so far in 2026 to USD 651 million.
This information becomes relevant in the context of negotiations with the IMF, which, according to official sources, is still continuing in Buenos Aires, Argentina.Where all the focus is on the goal of accumulation of negative international reserves that was missed last December (it was USD -2.6 billion).
According to the consulting firm Eco Go, the BCRA has net international reserves of USD-9,856 million as of February 10, 2026, according to the IMF methodology (identified as RIN TMU IMF), where liabilities issued in less than one year are subtracted (repos are not included) and IMF net disbursements.The distance from the December 2025 accumulation goal is significant: the gap is USD 6,532 million compared to the established objective (-USD 2,600 million), a difference that generates concern in the market and in official offices.
From the consulting firm Eco Go, its director Sebastián Menescaldi explained that “net reserves in the IMF methodology fall due to payments to bondholders and increased debt.”Menescaldi specifies that the calculation under this criterion only considers as liabilities those originally issued less than one year old, excludes repos and discounts net IMF disbursements.”They are just over USD 6.5 billion away from the goal agreed upon today. This has several asterisks. There are operations that the BCRA carried out that we do not know about,” he added in dialogue with Infobae.
The last loan with international banks for USD 3,000 million that the BCRA took to face the payment to bondholders in January for USD 4,200 million would not be discounted.As Infobae learned, with off-the-record market sources, USD 1,000 million of this repo expires in October 2026 and USD 4,000 million in January 2027.
If you look at the series, when Javier Milei took office in December 2023, net international reserves stood at USD -11,464 million.Then, in December 2024, they increased to USD -2,222 million, but they had a rebound in April to USD -6,287 million with the fall in currencies (they went from USD 21,030 million to USD 16,651 million).
The key for the economic team, to get closer to the goal with the IMF in the coming months and, at the same time, ensure that inflation returns to the path of deceleration, will be to maintain the current situation: that there are no exchange rate jumps.Although the BCRA makes sustained purchases of reserves, since January the dollar has remained stable, even in recent days it fell and on Tuesday it closed the retail price at $1,425 and the wholesale price at $1,406.
In the second review, it was established that for the first quarter of 2026, the BCRA should have net international reserves of USD -3,100 million, when before the first it was required to have positive ones, USD 900 million (a difference of USD 4,000 million).While, for the fourth, the goal is USD 8.4 billion (previously it was USD 10.4 billion, difference of USD -2 billion). But now all of these objectives are under review.
As Infobae learned from a front-line official, on Tuesday the economic team met with the IMF mission that arrived in the country last Thursday.“They are very happy, they will be leaving in the next few days,” he commented as he climbed the stairs of the central hall of the Palacio de Hacienda around 6 p.m.A couple of hours later, the Vice Minister of Economy, Luis Daza, accompanied by Leonardo Madcur, passed by that same place, who preferred not to make statements.
But the calculation methodology is a source of debate between private analysts and economic authorities.While some consulting firms adjust the figures based on public information and partial data on the composition of reserves, others introduce assumptions about the valuation of certain assets and the accounting for contingent liabilities.
The LCG economist, Florencia Iragui, provides an alternative vision: “Yesterday, the net reserves according to the IMF criteria were around USD-16.1 billion. In this way, it differs from the net reserves calculated by us, since it discounts the disbursements and the difference in prices between the beginning of the agreement and the present. The net international reserves in our estimates would be slightly above zero, about USD 100 million with partial data onthe composition of reserves in recent days, such as reserve requirements.”
A similar position has the director of C
But there are those who have doubts about what the treatment of the swap with the United States will be in view of the next net reserve goals to be set with the IMF.”When the agreement with the Fund was defined and the reserve goals were set, the swap did not exist; therefore, there was no adjustment for debt with North America; there were adjustments for short-term debts, they were not going to count as an increase in reserves if the Government took out a loan for less than a year. But there were no specifications on whether the United States was asked to pay the Fund,” commented a former official of the Ministry of Economy, for whom, when the objectives are now redefined, it will be added thatIt is net of any disbursement made from the swap.Because, if this were not the case, with the mere request to draw the dollars, it would be fulfilled.
