The%20start%20of%202026%20mark%20a%20path%20of%20divergence%20for%20the%20d%C3%B3lar%20and%20the%20inflation%C3%B3nin%20the%20Argentina,%20well%20while%20the%20first%20operates%20today%20for%20below%20of%20price%20held%20at%20closing%20of%202025,%20%20inflation%C3%B3n,%20away%20from%20down,%20turned%C3%B3%20toaccelerate%20and%20stay%20close%20to%20a%20high%203%%20monthly.
This disparity should be monitored very closely to avoid another episode of exchange rate delays or, seen another way, high dollar inflation in the near future.
With this background scenario, the main local and foreign economic consultants once again put numbers to the projections for 2026 and 2027. The latest surveys show that the exchange rate and inflation estimates register minimal changes compared to the projections released in December, which reinforces the idea of a scenario of relative stability in market expectations.
According to the latest LatinFocus report, the consensus among local and foreign analysts indicates that the process of inflationary deceleration continues, although with pressures associated with the exchange rate scheme and the pace of currency depreciation.Regarding inflation, the most recent data indicate that the price index maintains a downward trend in year-on-year terms, despite an acceleration in recent months.The data released by Indec last Tuesday reflects this.
The report stated that inflation “recorded a marked decrease compared to the previous year. Inflation is expected to continue declining in the coming quarters thanks to the containment of public spending, improved competition in the market and the relaxation of restrictions on imports. However, the strong depreciation of the currency, added to the reduction of subsidies, will increase upward pressure.”
The%20projections%20forward%20reflect%20that%20this%20process%20of%20deceleration%C3%B3n%20seextender%C3%A1%20during%20the%20pr%C3%B3next%20quarters.%20The%20panelists%20of%20FocusEconomicsestimate%20that%20the%20prices%20to%20consumer%20increase%C3%A1n%2025,4%%20in%20average%20in%202026,%20a figure%20that%20increases%20in%201.4%20point%20percentage%20the%20estimation%C3%B3n%20reported%20a%20table%C3%A1s.
For%202027,%20the%20consensus%20place%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n%20average%20in%2015.7%,%20consolgoing%20a trajectory%20of%20lowest%20variation%C3%B3n%20of%20prices%20in%20the%20medium%20plazo,%20although%20it is worth emphasizing%20that%20this%20projection%C3%B3n%20is%200.8%20point%20percentage%20m%C3%A1s%20high%20that%20the%20reported in%20the%20evaluation%C3%B3n%20of%20January%20%C3%BAlast.
At the same time, reports collected by LatinFocus warn that the appreciation of the peso – that is, a dollar that rises less than inflation and even falls nominally – puts upward pressure on some components of the basket, especially on tradable goods and products with high imported content.
%E2%80%9CThe%20Bank%20Central%20allows%20the%20depreciation%C3%B3n%20of%20peso%20within%20of%20a%20band%20indexedto%20the%20inflation%C3%B3n%20past,%20a%20measure%20that%20seeks%20avoid%20a%20appreciation%C3%B3n%20real.%20The%20weight%20quotation%C3%B3%20a%201,432,90%20pesos%20Argentines%20by%20d%C3%B3lar%20American%20on%206%20of%20february,with%20a%20appreciationC3%B3n%20intermonthly%20of%202.4%.%20The%20type%20of%20change%20of%20parallel market%20se%20quotation%C3%B3%20a%201,435%20pesos%20Argentines%20by%20d%C3%B3lar%20American%20on%206%February 20,%20with%20a%20appreciation%C3%B3n%20intermonthly%20dthe%205.9%.%20Se%20prev%C3%A9%20that%20both%20types%20of exchange%20will%20weaken%20for%20ends%20of%202026.%20The%20panelistas%20de%20FocusEconomicsprev%C3%A9n%20que%20el%20peso%20closure%202026%20in%201,728,60%20pesos%20argentinos%20por%20d%C3%B3larAmerican%20and%202027%20in%201,947.4%20pesos%20Argentines%20by%20d%C3%B3lar%E2%80%9D,%20precis%C3%B3%20the study.
These two projections mark a slight decrease with respect to the price of the dollar established in the previous report, of $1,733.60 by the end of this year, and $1,935.20 next year.
The%20behavior%20of%20type%20of%20change%20appears%20as%20a%20element%20central%20to explain%20that%20din%C3%A1mica.%20The%20Bank%20Central%20implements%20from%202026%20a%20r%C3%A9moan%20in%20elque%20permit%20que%20el%20d%C3%B3lar%20rise%20inside%20of%20a%20band%20indexed%20a%20the%20inflation%C3%B3nrecent%20 (with%20two%20months%20of%20lag),%20con%20the%20objective%20of%20avoid%20the%20exchangeback.%20No%20however,%20sec%C3%BAn%20the%20consensus%20of%20the%20analysts%20consulted%20byLatinFocus,%20the%20d%C3%B3lar%20ascender%C3%A1%20a%20lo%20long%20del%202026%20a%2018,8%%20-from%20los%20$1,455del%20closing%20de%202025-%20about%206.6%20%20percentage points%20less%20than%20the%20projected%C3%B3ninflation.
Among%20other%20aspects,%20the%20report%20indic%C3%B3%20that%20%E2%80%9Cla%20activity%20econ%C3%B3mica%20cay%C3%B3%20a%200.3%interannual%20in%20November,%20after%20a%20increase%20of%203.2%%20in%20the%20month%20previous.%20The%20data%20November%20was%20the%20m%C3%A1s%20low%20from%20September%20of%202024.%20In%20comparison%C3%B3n%20with%20the%20datafrom%20previousmonth%20,%20the%20data%20from%20November%20se%20modwere%20in%20in%20manufacturing%20 (-8.2% year-on-year%20vs%20%20-2.7%%20%20%20october),%20the%20construction%C3%B3n%20(-2.3%%20vs%20%205.3%of%20October)%20and%20the%20transport%20and%20the%20communications%20( 1.8%%20compared%20to%20 2.5%%20ofOctober).%20On the other hand,%20the%20data%20of%20the%20agriculture%20(10.5%%20front%20al%20 3.1%of%20October)%20and%20the%20hosteler%C3%ADa%20(0.3%%20against%20%20-0.4%%20of%20October)%20rebounded.%20Int%C3%A9terms%20monthly,%20activity%20econ%C3%B3mica%20decreased%C3%B3%20a%200.3%%20in%20November, after%20a%20ca%C3%ADda%20from%200.4%%20in%20the%20month%20previous%E2%80%9D.
%E2%80%9CThe%20recovery%C3%B3n%20of%20the%20real%20wages%20and%20the%20rates%20of%20inter%C3%A9s%20m%C3%A1s%20lowsduty%C3%ADan%20boost%20the%20growth%20del%20consumo%20private%20this%20a%C3%B1o.%20The%20perspectivesof%20investment%C3%B3n%20also%C3%A9n%20improved%20after%20the%20result%20of%20the%20elections%20of%20half%20demand%20and%20the%20portfolio%20of%20projects%20of%20investment%C3%B3n%20at%20large%20scale%20in%20the%20framework%20ofthe%20RIGI program.%20Our%20consensus:%20The%20panelists%20of%20FocusEconomics%20prev%C3%A9n%20anexpansi%C3%B3n%20del%20GDP%20del%203,2%%20in%202026,%20without%20changeos%20respect%20to%20month%20previous,%20and%20of3,2%%20in%202027%E2%80%B3,%20express%C3%B3.
