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The Treasury’s decision reaffirms the Government’s will to limit the amount of pesos to true market demand.Given the inflationary jump in recent months, a monetary adjustment was chosen that at least for the moment had no impact on rate levels.
This implies that the remonetization program is advancing but a little slower than planned.Yesterday the Central Bank bought USD 214 million, the highest figure since the year started.
However, a good part of the pesos it issues to buy dollars later end up being withdrawn by the Treasury, as happened in yesterday’s tender. Although it does not technically imply an absorption by the Central, it is money that stops circulating and therefore the reactivation of activity is delayed.
On the other hand, continuing to withdraw pesos from the market implies that the dollar will remain weak.Yesterday the official exchange rate fell again to $1,420 in the case of the retailer, while the wholesaler was on the verge of piercing 1,400 pesos. The Central’s purchases are what are preventing it from piercing that level, at least for now.
Only when inflation shows clear signs of decline would monetary expansion proceed as a result of the purchase of foreign currency.Phase 4 of the plan implies, precisely, that the pesos issued by the BCRA to acquire dollars will not later be sterilized.
The progress of the plan to accumulate reserves and the rise in inflation is obviously one of the central topics of the conversations that are being carried out with the mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that is in Buenos Aires.
The organization’s concern is that the Central Bank manages to accumulate reserves to be able to better face external shocks.Once the review is approved, beyond the failure to accumulate reserves in 2025, the agency will disburse USD 1 billion as part of the ongoing program.
Throughout the day there was speculation regarding the post by Economy Minister Luis Caputo on Tuesday, when he indicated that “there will be news” after meeting with the president, Javier Milei, and the head of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili.One possibility, it was speculated yesterday, is that measures be taken to alleviate the exchange rate for companies.However, nothing was officially confirmed.
The economic team received representatives from Alyc yesterday afternoon, with the objective of encouraging operations with dollars after the regulation of the Tax Innocence Law.The officials explained to the executives the spirit of the tax innocence law and asked them to generate more instruments to invest in hard currency.
For now, banks are reluctant to receive dollars without requiring justification of the funds and refer to current anti-money laundering regulations.Therefore, to have a tax cap, the saver must register in the simplified Earnings regime.
The one who took the lead in encouraging investors to deposit mattress dollars in an account is Banco Nación, which in the coming days will launch active campaigns with that objective.
