The%20peak%20of%202.9%%20of%20inflation%C3%B3n%20of%20January%20yesterday%20spread%C3%B3%20the%20Indec%20coincidi%C3%B3%20with%20the%20floor%20of%20d%C3%B3lar%20in%20what%20what%20goes%20of%20to%C3%B1o.The%20expectation%20of%20Government%20is%20that%20the%20type%20of%20change%20return%20to%20function%20as%20ananchor%20against%20the%20rise%20of%20prices,%20something%20that%20was%20lost%C3%B3%20in%20the%20second%20semester%20of2025.%20In%20the%20medium%20of%20the%20turbulence%20that%20se%20generate%C3%B3%20in%20the%20previous%20of%20the%20legislativeelections%20was%20even%20necessary%20the%20intervention%C3%B3n%20of%20American%20Treasure to%20avoid%20an%20abrupt%20jump%20of%20the%20currency.
Even Luis “Toto” Caputo last week blamed the “kuka risk” for the rise in inflation.The message from the Minister of Economy left no room for doubt: the increase in the dollar until October of last year produced a subsequent impact on inflation.
Now the opposite situation would be occurring.The retail dollar fell from $1,490 at the beginning of the year to its low of $1,425 at yesterday’s close.The wholesaler was even close to breaking 1,400 pesos.
This%20decrease%C3%B3n%20of%20type%20of%20change%20should%C3%ADa%20be reflected%20in%20a%20decelerationeraci%C3%B3ninflationary%20in%20few%20months.%20Now%20the%20looks%20of%20Government,%20but%20also%C3%A9n%20ofthemarket,%20point%20to%20April.%20That%20month,%20if%20no%20happens%20nothing%20disruptvo,%20the%20%C3%ADindexshould%C3%ADa%20drill%20the%202%%20to%20then%20accelerate%20su%20ca%C3%ADda.
What is almost a fact is that inflation for the year will be much higher than what has been forecast.In the latest Market Expectations Survey, analysts raised their estimate to 22.4 percent.But that projection looks old considering what happened in January and what is expected for the next two months.It would be a triumph for the Government if the index ends the year around 25 percent.
Although%20the%202.9%%20was%20almost%20the%20double%20of%201.5%%20that%20threw%C3%B3%20mayo%20the%20a%C3%B1o%20last,%20the same there were%20some%20mitigators.%20The%20inflation%C3%B3n%20n%C3%BAcleo,%20which%20leaves%20of%20side%20the%20increasesdue to%20seasonal%20and%20the%20regulated%20prices%20 (as%20tariffs)%20was%20of%202.6%20percent.
The%20increase%20in%20food%20and%20drinks%20of%204.7%%20was%20exceptional%20for%20lo%20high,%20but it had an impact%20on some%20specific items:%20%20meat%20returned%C3%B3%20a%20raise%20m%C3%A1s%20de%205.5%,%20elpollo%209%,%20but%20there were%20increases%20in%20fruits%20and%20vegetables%20from%20to%2090%%20like%20pasts%C3%B3%20with%20the tomato.
Therefore, it would not be illogical to expect that in the next two months the index will already be below 2.5 percent.After some very strong seasonal increases, it is expected that these prices will decline in February.However, the increase in rates is more significant and will have an impact on the inflation rate.
The%20ca%C3%ADda%20del%20d%C3%B3lar%20ya%20exceeds%20the%204%%20from%20the%20start%20del%20a%C3%B1o,%20whileonce%20%20inflation%C3%B3n%20accelerated%C3%B3%20during%20the%20same%20per%C3%AEverything.%20The%20consequence%20is%20that%20the%20type%20of%20real%20change%20multilateral,%20that%20measures%20the%20competitiveness%20of%20the%20economym%C3%ADa%20argentina, fell%C3%B3%2010%%20from%20the%20levels%20that%20exhibited%C3%ADa%20to%20end%20of%20October.
In this way, a phenomenon that even the Government itself had perhaps celebrated in advance partially disappeared: the little impact that the rise of the dollar had had on prices.As the months go by, it becomes clear that the transfer is still relevant.
On the other hand, there was still the expectation of Caputo’s enigmatic announcement after having lunch with the president, Javier Milei, and the head of the Central Bank, Santiago Bausili.“There will be news,” posted the Minister of Economy without giving further details on the matter.Many interpreted that measures are coming to continue easing the exchange rate, especially for companies, taking advantage of the fall of the dollar, although there were no confirmations in that sense.
