The scenario left by the first month of the year exceeded the expectations of investors and the Government itself.All financial variables played very favorably in an also positive international context.From the second business day of the year, the Central Bank began to buy dollars to accumulate reserves and added USD 1.1 billion in the month, which was the beginning of phase 4 of the monetary plan.
The great financial moment at the start of 2026 was transferred to the market.In the case of dollar bonds, the increase in demand led to the country risk finally breaking through 500 basis points in recent days.If there are no big surprises in the international context, everything indicates that there is room for bonds to continue gaining ground.
The Government’s next objective is to reach 400 basis points.Until that time there will be no plans to go out and finance itself in international markets.“We are not going to validate the current rates, they are still too high for the fundamentals of the economy,” the economic team says.
Another of the very positive data that January leaves is that the Central’s dollar purchases did not have an impact on the exchange rate, which ends up falling slightly in the month.This means that private sector demand for foreign currency remains at low levels, especially for hoarding.
The BCRA’s “harvest” in January exceeded all expectations and opens good prospects for what could happen, especially in the second quarter.It is expected that with the liquidation of foreign exchange from the heavy harvest there will be much more room to continue buying.
The new remonetization scheme launched by the BCRA estimates a purchase floor of USD 10,000 million with the consequent issuance of pesos that are not sterilized.But if the conditions are favorable, especially regarding the flow of foreign currency, it could reach 17 billion dollars.
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“The BCRA considers that the conditions are in place to prioritize supplying the demand for money through the purchase of foreign currency during 2026, facilitating the objective of accumulating international reserves,” the entity said when releasing the Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) yesterday.
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The Merval index measured in dollars (according to the Cash with Liquidation price) is already above $2,100.The maximum it had reached in the current administration was $2,400 a year ago.The exchange rate turbulence and political uncertainty caused an abrupt decline, which was recovered steadily after the October elections.
